National Retail Federation Forecasts First-Ever $1 Trillion Holiday Shopping Season

NEW YORK — Despite economic uncertainty and rising prices, American consumers are expected to spend more this holiday season than last year. According to the National Retail Federation’s 2025 forecast, holiday spending in November and December is projected to reach between $1.01 trillion and $1.02 trillion, marking a 3.7% to 4.2% increase over 2024.

The prediction highlights continued strong consumer demand during the holiday period, signaling optimism for retailers across the country and reinforcing the significance of the 2025 holiday shopping season.

Retailers rung up $976 billion in holiday sales last year, or a 4.3% increase from the prior year, the group said.

“We’re seeing really positive behavior and engagement from consumers, ” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay told reporters on a call Thursday. “In fairness, that’s been somewhat of a surprise.”

But Shay said more Americans are growing selective and they’re focused on discounts. And while spending is expected to be up again, the growth of that spending may be in decline.

That is still greater than the average increase of 3.6% between 2010 to 2019. Americans ramped up spending after that during the coronavirus pandemic. Holiday season sales rose 8.9% in 2020 and soared 12.5% in 2021, according to the NRF.